How many forints did the change of government bring to the table?
The parliamentary elections triggered landslide changes in several domestic economic indicators, even though nothing tangible has actually happened yet. In recent days, numerous analyses have summarized the immediate market effects of the elections. Based on already published data, this paper seeks to answer the following question:
how can so much measurable economic value be generated without anything substantial actually changing?
WHAT CHANGED?
Following the victory of the Tisza Party, the forint strengthened by nearly 3.6 percent against the euro over a single weekend, marking an almost four-year record.
On the first trading day of the week, the BUX index closed at a historic high of 139,459 points with a 5 percent increase, alongside an unusually high turnover of 126.8 billion forints. OTP’s share price jumped by 8.4 percent to 44,750 forints, a massive new record compared to the previous high of 41,890 forints. MOL strengthened by 8 percent to 4,380 forints, surpassing its previous record of 4,128 forints. Meanwhile, Richter shares rose by 1.6 percent to 13,000 forints, also reaching a new all-time high.
At the same time, Opus Global shares fell by 30.23 percent in a single day to 300 forints, while 4iG dropped by 17.43 percent to 2,056 forints. Delta Technologies shares were 10.3 percent lower than on Friday, and Rába -acquired last year by 4iG – lost 9 percent of its value. Although the share prices of these companies partially corrected after a few days, the longer-term trend is clear: by 2026, 4iG is down 37.6 percent and Gránit Bank 26 percent compared to the previous year.
In the institutional government bond market, yields on Hungarian government securities fell by 29–32 basis points in a single day. The 5-year yield, which had stood at a peak of 7.5 percent during tensions with Iran, dropped to 6.12 percent after the election. The Hungarian 10-year yield declined by nearly 150 basis points from its March peak, while regional yields remained above their January levels.
The market immediately priced in – and perhaps already spent – the nearly €35 billion in currently frozen EU funds, even though 27 conditions still need to be met to access these resources, and the available time window for their use closes at the end of 2026. All three credit rating agencies also responded promptly: in analyses published in the days following the elections, they highlighted that securing EU funds could improve the country’s creditworthiness through stronger growth prospects and improved external balance.
WHAT DIDN’T CHANGED?
Despite turbulent market movements, essentially nothing substantial or tangible has shifted.
The Hungarian economy continues to face serious challenges, the Russia-Ukraine war continues with unchanged intensity, and the Druzhba oil pipeline still does not deliver oil. Due to the Iranian crisis, highly concerning processes are unfolding in the global economy, while according to the head of the International Energy Agency, the world may be facing the most severe energy crisis in its history.
The new government and parliament have not yet been formed, and the incoming prime minister has already announced that no radical changes are expected regarding Russian energy imports or migration policy, and the country will not enter the war in Ukraine.
Thus, a stark gap is emerging between the persistently adverse – and even worsening – market environment and the spectacular improvement in several key indicators of the Hungarian economy.
WHAT DID THE CHANGE IN PERCEPTIONS BRING, AND HOW MUCH IS IT WORTH?
Clearly, only one thing has changed:
perceptions about the country’s future – that is, the market reputation of the Hungarian economy – which almost immediately generated hundreds of billions of forints in measurable gains, practically out of nothing.
The robust impact of the elections on exchange rates is evidenced by the fact that the forint was the only currency in the region to strengthen during the week. According to analysts, the BUX index was clearly driven by the election, as the international environment did not justify such an increase. The BUX significantly outperformed pessimistic European benchmarks (e.g., Euro Stoxx 50), which were weighed down by Iranian tensions and rising oil prices.
The combined market capitalization of OTP, MOL, and Richter increased by nearly 1,270 billion forints (approximately €3.5 billion) in a single trading day. This remains outstanding even considering that MOL’s price movement may also have been influenced by a 6.5–7 percent surge in global oil prices.
The victory of Tisza also impacted the decline in share prices of companies linked to state orders, with the combined market value loss of OPUS and 4iG amounting to approximately 221 billion forints.
The shift in market perceptions may also have played a decisive role in the decline of government bond yields. Although the financial effects are extremely difficult to estimate, it is worth making at least order-of-magnitude calculations. Through expected savings in government debt financing costs, price gains on outstanding government securities, and the reduction in the forint value of foreign currency debt, yield and exchange rate movements could generate impacts of several hundred billion forints – entirely independent of real economic processes. All this occurred while the new government has not yet been formed, no economic policy measures have been adopted, and the conditions required to unlock EU funds have not been met.
This is a rare moment: recent developments clearly reveal the sharp separation between market fundamentals and perceptions, that is, the measurable financial impact of reputation in concrete forint amounts. The Hungarian elections also demonstrate that markets price not the actual economic policy and performance, but the reputation of the expected economic policy.
This is referred to in financial literature as the “anticipation effect”: when the reputation of a company or country discounts future cash flows back into the present.
The rapid market reaction also raises an uncomfortable question: markets clearly associated these positive economic scenarios with Tisza. Scenarios that could have been represented by the governing party as well. In the end, the market eliminated the risk premium accumulated over years in just a single week.